The Trump Effect: A Shift in Public Sentiment
One of the most striking data points from the survey emerged early on, revealing a dramatic shift in responses compared to just four months ago. A notable 72.7% of respondents now believe the country is on the right track, while only 16.8% think it’s on the wrong track, and 10.5% remain unsure. In contrast, in Tennessee, 60.7% of residents feel the state is headed in the right direction, 17% believe it’s on the wrong track, and 22.3% are unsure. Clearly, Tennessee Republicans are energized by the Trump administration’s aggressive implementation of conservative values in its first 47 days.
Job Approval
Tennesseans show overwhelming support for President Donald Trump, with a job approval rating of 83%, 71.2% strongly approving. U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn also holds strong support, with 76.6% of respondents expressing their approval. 54.3% strongly approve and 22.3% somewhat approving.
Respondents show strong support for Elon Musk's and DOGE’s efforts to eliminate government fraud, reduce waste, and curb spending. The approval stands at 81.1%, with 68.3% offering strong approval and 12.8% somewhat approving.
2028 Republican Presidential Nominee
In the 2028 Republican nomination race, JD Vance decisively defeats a deep and talented field of potential candidates, securing 55.2% of the vote. He dominates Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, who garner just 7% and 6% respectively, while Donald Trump Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy, Tulsi Gabbard, and Elise Stefanik each receive less than 3%. 26% remain undecided.
Tennessee Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate
One thing is clear from the survey: if Marsha Blackburn decides to officially enter the Governor’s race in Tennessee, she will dominate. In a head-to-head matchup with John Rose, Blackburn leads with 59% support, while Rose trails at 17%, and 24% remain undecided. In a broader hypothetical field, Blackburn continues to lead with 40.3% support, followed by Bill Hagerty and Glenn Jacobs at 15.8% and 10.3%, respectively. Other candidates include John Rose with 7.2%, Cameron Sexton with 2.3%, Damon Hininger with 0.3%, and 23.7% undecided.
We asked voters who should be appointed to fill the remainder of Marsha Blackburn’s U.S. Senate term if she were to officially run for Governor. Tim Burchett leads the field with 19.7%, followed by Glenn Jacobs at 10%, Mark Green with 9.2%, David Kustoff at 7.5%, Diana Harshbarger with 6%, Chuck Fleischmann at 4.2%, Scott DesJarlais at 4%, Cameron Sexton at 3.7%, Andy Ogles at 2.7%, and 33.2% remain unsure. In a follow-up question, we asked voters for their second choice for U.S. Senate appointee, and the results were nearly identical, with Tim Burchett leading again, followed by Mark Green and Glenn Jacobs.
Tennesseans have strong trust in U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn. When asked if she should have the power to appoint someone to fill the remainder of her Senate term if elected Governor, voters overwhelmingly supported the idea. A total of 66% agreed, while 22.3% disagreed, and 11.7% were unsure or had no opinion.
The Tennessee Statewide Primary Survey was conducted by IVR Live Landline and Online Mobile Interviews from March 06 - March 10 among a random sample of 600 likely republican primary election voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results are weighted on a 2022 midterm Republican Primary model.
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